The 2014
election season has finally concluded.
It began the day after the 2012 election. This one ended in a bang, with the
Republicans extending their hold in the House of Representatives and taking
control of the Senate, leaving Congress in the hands of one party, the White
House of the other. So what will it mean
for the country, and in particular, the book industry?
Generally,
the Republicans favor a smaller government, lower taxes, more support for the
military, are pro-life, less sympathetic to those who struggle (homeless or
poor), less open to science (evolution, climate change), more supportive of
religion, and more for corporate welfare than social welfare. So if they vote as a block – and negotiate with
President Barack Obama – what kind of book world might we see?
First,
any changes to the tax structure will likely help the business world. In the end, such a change may hurt the
country (less tax revenue means more deficit or fewer services), but in the
short run, could boost the economy if businesses use the savings to hire more
people and reinvest in their companies.
If the businesses just hoard the savings and don’t circulate the money,
everyone loses – except for major corporations.
Bookstores can use all the tax breaks possible. In fact, they should get a tax exemption,
much like a charity, as they serve the greater needs of communities and
society.
Republicans
tend to favor monopolies and big corporations, so don’t expect anything to be
done to Amazon. Further, they favor
financial loopholes and technicalities that allow the rich to get richer, so
don’t expect anyone in a position of power or influence to suddenly shrink.
When it
comes to education, both at the state and federal level, the power is in the
hands of Republicans. Given their
policies and past practices, don’t expect education budgets to grow much. As a result, book purchases by
schools may not grow so much either.
Immigration
reform is not likely to pass in a Republican Congress. In fact, our borders might tighten, limiting
population growth. Since many immigrants
struggle with learning English, it’s not clear how fever immigrants would hurt
book sales, other than the sale of ESL texts.
Perhaps
the biggest change to book publishing will come in the content of books
published. Though there always will be
books in favor of or against either party and their policies, a change in
government leads to either a revisiting of old issues or the discussion of new
ones. Such change is good for the
industry.
Library
budgets tend to get cut – or growth is limited -- when Republicans are in
power. All things unrelated to police,
military or church are not embraced by Republican rulers. Don’t look for big growth in libraries, which
means publishers will be limited in library sales.
Looking
beyond the book world, what will a Republican revolution look like? It’s too early to say, but one thing is
clear, it will lead to a Democratic revolution one day. That’s just the natural cycle of
politics. The country gets fed up with
one party, and then switches to the other.
Sometimes it splits the government in half and gridlock ensues. The next two years will definitely see some
changes – and then before you know it, all we’ll hear about is 2016 and the
race for the Oval Office. Which will
lead to new candidates – and their books detailing their visions. Are you lining up outside your bookstore for
any of these books?
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Brian
Feinblum’s views, opinions, and ideas expressed in this blog are his alone and
not that of his employer, Media Connect, the nation’s largest book promoter.
You can follow him on Twitter @theprexpert and email him at brianfeinblum@gmail.com.
He feels more important when discussed in the third-person. This is copyrighted
by BookMarketingBuzzBlog © 2014
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